Money Match-ups

September 30, 2011

Week 5 of the college football season has some of the most intriguing match-ups on the schedule this year. Most of the games will have conference implications, and four of the games will be featuring top-25 teams going head-to-head.

Kicking it off (no pun intended) #14 Texas A&M takes on #18 Arkansas. This is not a conference game as Texas A&M is part of the Big 12 (however they were recently accepted to the SEC) and Arkansas is part of the SEC, but the winner of this game will surely move up in the BCS polls. Statistically this game is one of the most evenly matched games I have ever seen: Texas A&M is averaging 37.3 points scored per game, with 17 points allowed. Arkansas is averaging 38.8 points scored per game, with 19 points allowed. Interestingly enough Texas A&M, the road team, is favored in this game by 2.5 (-2.5 off of their total). That spread is an indicator that it will be a close game, so it would be a good idea to bet the money line on this game.

I like Texas A&M on the money line; odds are -135.

#13 Clemson visits #11 Virginia Tech in an ACC conference showdown. Clemson is coming off of two quality victories against Auburn and Florida State; this will be their first road test of the season. With all due respect to VA Tech, they have had somewhat of an easy schedule so far, and I can’t understand why they are ranked so high.

Take Clemson with the points (+7).

#3 Alabama visits #12 Florida in an SEC conference game. Alabama is the real deal this year, they have won convincingly at home and on the road against ranked opponents (then #23 Penn St. and then #14 Arkansas). Florida is 4-0 but has not had a big test from a ranked opponent yet.

I like Alabama to cover the spread (-4). Roll Tide.

#8 Nebraska visits #7 Wisconsin in a Big 10 conference match-up. Neither team has had a real test from a ranked opponent this year, so it will be interesting to see how they respond. I’m expecting a close game until the end (possibly OT) as this is both teams’ first conference game and first “big” game of the season. However the spread of 9.5 would say otherwise.

My money is on Nebraska with the points (+9.5).

*Stanford is back from their week off and as usual they look good to cover the spread (-20.5) against UCLA.


Parlays vs. Straight Bets

September 23, 2011

OK now it gets more complicated. Once you know all the ins and outs of how to bet you will have a tremendous urge to bet as many teams as you can, because the more teams you bet the more money you win. Don’t forget though, bet smart.

A parlay is a wager placed on a series of bets on one ticket (betting receipt). The rules on these types of tickets require the bettor to win every bet on the ticket in order to win money overall. As more teams get added on one ticket, your odds of winning that ticket go down, which increase the overall payout. For example, a parlay card at the Cal-Neva sportsbooks breaks down the odds as shown:

3 for 3 teams ….. pays 6.75 to 1

4 for 4 teams ….. pays 13 to 1

5 for 5 teams ….. pays 26 to 1

6 for 6 teams ….. pays 52 to 1

7 for 7 teams ….. pays 104 to 1

8 for 8 teams ….. pays 208 to 1

9 for 9 teams ….. pays 425 to 1

10 for 10 teams ….. pays 850 to 1

11 for 11 teams ….. pays 1,600 to 1

12 for 12 teams ….. pays 3,000 to 1

So with these type of odds you can see how enticing it is to want to go after that almighty 12-teamer. From my experience large parlay tickets are extremely hard to win, as you can see by the odds. It is important to remember that if 1 team loses, the entire ticket is lost. Yes, even if you go 11 for 12 and lose the 12th game by ½ point. Parlays are a good way to win a lot of money if the bettor only wants to wager a little.

Straight bets are much easier to understand. It is one bet for one game and the bettor wins usually about as much as they wager. The amount of winnings depends on the odds set by the sportsbook. When you look at a money line or run line off of the board you will notice it will have something like +120 -180 next to the teams. The minus sign (-) denotes the favorite and the addition sign (+) denotes the underdog. This means if you bet $100 on the favorite, you will win $80. If you bet $100 on the underdog you will win $120. These odds fluctuate as the bets come into the sportsbook.

You should now feel somewhat comfortable betting, besides the whole “you could lose money thing.” The combinations of bets are endless:

  • straight bets on the money line
  • straight bets on the run line
  • parlays on the money line off the board
  • parlays on the run line off the board
  • parlays on the run line off of parlay cards

GOOD LUCK!


Money Lines vs. Run Lines

September 22, 2011

This concept is not hard to understand, but when you are inside a sportsbook all of the green, red, white, yellow, blue, and purple lights illuminating the board can make it hard to process. I will explain the difference between the money line and the run line, and when it is advantageous to bet either way.

First let’s start with the basics; the Money Line (denoted on the board as ML) means the bettor is strictly betting on who will win the game, match, fight, etc. Betting on the Money Line does not include a spread (a spread is the amount of points the sportsbook has decided to add/subtract from a team depending on whether they are favored to win or not; also known as a line). Think of it as making a bet with your friend; whoever wins the game wins.

The Run Line (denoted on the board as RL, or Line) is a little different because this way of betting takes the spread into account. For example this weekend the Oregon Ducks are playing the Arizona Wildcats. Oregon is ranked number 10 in the nation, so in this game they are considered the favorite. The line, or spread, on this game is 16 points; therefore, Oregon is -16, and on the other side Arizona is +16. This means that if you bet on Oregon they must win by more than 16 points to cover the spread, in order for you to win your bet, and vice versa.

It is important to remember there are different odds involved when betting on Money Lines and Run Lines. Obviously the odds of you winning a Money Line bet are better than you winning a Run Line bet because there is not spread involved on a Money Line bet. Run Line bets give you the opportunity to win more money, but Money Line bets are easier to win. If the team you’re betting on is going to win by a large margin, take the Run Line; if it will be close and you can’t afford to give up points take the Money Line, or the Run Line with the opposing team.

Prediction(s):   Oregon to cover the 16pt. spread at Arizona.             

Stats: Oregon is 1-2 covering spreads this year.They lost to the LSU Tigers 40-27; they were -3. They won against the Nevada Wolfpack 69-20; they were -27.5. They won against Missouri State 56-7; they were -54.

Reasoning: LSU was their first game of the season and is now ranked #2 in the nation. The spread of 54 is a very hard spread to cover and they still almost covered. I think they will be able to handle the 16 points against Arizona; plus it is a conference game, so they will be wanting to make a statement.


Blake’s Betting Blog

September 17, 2011

Hello, my name is Blake Lederman, I am majoring in Business Management, minoring in Gaming Management at the University of Nevada, Reno. I am originally from Las Vegas, NV and have been interested in gambling ever since I could understand it.  I have an athletic background and am a sports fanatic.  After completing my education I’m looking to start my career in the gaming industry and eventually own my own business.  The fun, fast lifestyle of this industry is very appealing to me, and the money that comes along with it helps also.

I intend to blog about sports betting, focusing on college football (NCAA FB), professional football (NFL), and professional baseball (MLB).  I will also continue to write about gaming in general and what is going on with the industry as I am minoring in that field.  I will break down odds through statistical analysis, talk about parlay cards, straight bets, money lines verses run lines, over/unders, and so on.  If none of this makes sense now, do not worry because it will shortly. 

One thing stands out from what I have experienced through my sports betting, and all gambling for that matter: there is no such thing as a safe bet, or a “lock” as some people like to say.  However, there is such a thing as smart betting.  This is the type of advice I intend to provide; smart betting based on statistics and records, instead of just pure luck or hunches.  Educating readers about casino games and odds so they do not feel overwhelmed or “hustled” when they walk into/out of a casino will also be useful.  Eventually, the goal is to have readers choosing smart picks that leaves them walking out with some extra ca$h in their pockets.  I’m excited to be getting started and will talk to you shortly.

Look out for Stanford this year; they are 2-0 thus far, impressively covering the spreads.