Pleaser Picks on Sunday

December 3, 2011

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins: I like Oakland -3.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: I like Baltimore -14.5

New York Jets @ Washington Redskins: I like New York -10.5

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I like Carolina -3.5

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots: I like New England -28.5

The odds on a 5-team pleaser parlay are 240 to 1.


CFB Championship Week

December 1, 2011

MAC Championship Game:

The Northern Illinois Huskies will be taking on the Ohio Bobcats in Detroit Michigan tomorrow for the Mid-American Conference Title. The Huskies are 4 point favorites (-4) and the over under is 70. Ohio is riding a 5 game winning streak and will surely give the Huskies, who are on a 7 game winning streak, a great game. We have seen all season that both teams can put up points, but in this game I wouldn’t be looking for a shootout. Both defenses will be hyped up and ready to go for the title. I like Northern Illinois -4 and under 70.

Pac-12 Championship Game:

The Oregon Ducks will be hosting the UCLA Bruins looking to complete a great season and win the Pac-12 Title. Oregon has been impressive all season only losing twice to LSU and USC. Their high-powered and fast-paced offense will be too much for the Bruins to handle. The spread is 31.5 in favor of the Ducks; this is a huge spread for a championship game. If this game were earlier in the season I would say take Oregon, but teams show up to play during championship week. I like UCLA +31.5 and over 66.

C-USA Championship Game:

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles will be going up against the undefeated Houston Cougars. The Cougars are 13 point favorites (-13) in this match-up.  Houston will be looking to win and gain a bid to a BCS Bowl game. The cougars have been blowing teams out as of late so the 13 point spread should not give them any trouble. Look for a high scoring affair in this one. I like Houston -13 and over 73.

SEC Championship Game:

The LSU Tigers are taking on the Georgia Bulldogs in what is sure to be an awesome game. Georgia is the only team standing in the way between LSU and a trip to the national championship. Lots of people are rooting for the upset in this game, but it simply is not going to happen. The LSU defense is too strong for the Bulldog’s offense.  I like LSU -13. Stay away from the over/under (46.5) on this one the bookies got it right.

ACC Championship Game:

The Virginia Tech Hokies will be battling the Clemson Tigers in Atlanta, Georgia. Both teams will be looking to claim the title of ACC Champion. Personally I feel that the Hokies are overrated and cannot understand why they are ranked 5th in the nation. They only have 1 loss, which came from Clemson, but they have not beaten any teams worthy enough to put them at number 5. Clemson will be trying to snap a 2 game losing streak on Saturday against the Hokies, so they will definitely be coming in prepared. I like Clemson +7.5 in fact I think they will win outright. Money line odds are +230.

Big 10 Championship Game:

The Michigan State Spartans will be facing off with the Wisconsin Badgers in Indianapolis, Indiana. This will be an epic re-match of the thriller we saw earlier in the year where the Spartans won on a last second hail mary touchdown. I give the edge to the Badgers in this game simply because of the revenge factor. Get ready for an offensive display by the Badgers; I’m hoping it isn’t such a bad blowout that the game becomes boring. I like Wisconsin -9.5 and over 55.


Sportbook Review: The Wynn Las Vegas

November 26, 2011

While I was down in Las Vegas visiting my family for the Thanksgiving holiday I decided to go check out some of the sportsbooks. I have read numerous articles about new sportsbooks opening up all over the strip in casinos and that they were state of the art this and that. Now naturally one would expect Las Vegas everything to be fancier than the casinos and sportsbooks Reno has to offer. I must say that assumption is absolutely correct.

I visited The Wynn sportsbook and was thoroughly impressed by what they had to offer. The gigantic screens in the very front that displayed the board (where the lines are) and selected games were very appealing. As I entered there was a bar at the front (as most sportsbooks have) then I walked through a field of singular desks probably about 20 rows deep. The total size of the room could be compared with Lucky’s Sportsbook here in Reno at the Grand Sierra Resort. The thing that caught my eye the most was that at every desk there was an individual television (about 20”). I thought this was extremely cool because most of the sportsbooks in Reno do not even have a place to fill out the tickets, let alone a desk with its own TV. Bettors can sit in the big comfortable leather chairs and watch whichever game they prefer while drinking, eating, and filling out more tickets. What a great way to keep customers entertained.  This is just another example of what makes Vegas …  Vegas.

It was interesting to visit The Wynn and see what they had to offer bettors. However, all in all the bets are just as hard/easy to win at any sportsbook no matter where you are visiting.


Thankful for Football

November 23, 2011

The Thanksgiving day football games are a tradition unlike any other … but let’s be honest, they have not exactly been the best match-ups in recent years. This year however is shaping up to be one of the best Thanksgiving football days ever.

The games start bright and early at 9:30 am with Green Bay visiting Detroit, continuing with the afternoon game at 1:15 pm with Miami visiting Dallas. While everyone is getting ready to eat San Francisco will be kicking off in Baltimore at 5:20 pm. All I know is my spot at the table better have a view of the TV. Just as the games are winding down the tryptophan and booze should kick in and we will fall asleep. I cannot think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving.

Breakdown:

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: The Packers are undefeated … still. The Lions are good for the first time in awhile, and I guarantee you they are excited for this match-up. The potent offense of Green Bay will have to prove themselves against the Lions nasty defense. If the Detroit D-line can get to Rodgers they will have a chance to win this game. The Packers have a bad run defense, but the Lions don’t have a running game. I like the Packers to win this one in a shootout.

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys: Who cares it’s not the Heat playing the Mavericks. Stay away from betting this game.

San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens: The “Harbowl” as it is being called around the industry will definitely be an exciting game. Brothers John Harbaugh (Raven’s Head Coach) and Jim Harbaugh (49er’s Head Coach) will love to have bragging rights for this game. Both teams are first in their respective divisions. I give the edge to the Raven’s at home, but I like the 49er’s to cover getting 3 points.

Hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving. *Follow me on Twitter @blakelederman to see my weekly prediction(s) #blakesbets.


NFL Teams That Do Well ATS

November 19, 2011

It is week 11 in the NFL and by this time of the season we should know who’s who; meaning which teams make us money and which teams do not. I will break down teams with good records ATS and teams with bad records ATS. Either way they will somehow win us money by betting on the teams that cover and betting against the teams that don’t (sometimes bad stats are good haha).

San Francisco 49ers:

They are 8-0-1 (8 wins, 0 losses, 1 tie) ATS this season. This week they are 9.5 point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The over/under is 42.

Green Bay Packers:

They are 7-2-0 ATS this season. This week they are 13.5 point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The over/under is 49.5.

Cincinnati Bengals:

They are 7-2-0 ATS this season. This week they are 7 point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens. The over/under is 41.

St. Louis Rams:

They are 2-7-0 ATS this season. This week they are 2.5 point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks. The over/under is 38.

San Diego Chargers:

They are 2-7-0 ATS this season. This week they are 4 point underdogs against the Chicago Bears. The over/under is 46.

Cleveland Browns:

They are 1-6-2 ATS this season. This week they are a pick’em game (no spread) against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The over/under is 36.

Here are six games that bettors can win money off of just by looking at how teams are doing ATS. If you are feeling really confident turn this into a 12-teamer with the over/under picks in there as well. GOOD LUCK!

*Follow me on Twitter @blakelederman to see my weekly prediction(s) #blakesbets.


K-State Still Underdogs

November 18, 2011

I must admit I did not know Kansas State was this good ATS until I read a blog that I follow called Beyond the Bets. Sure enough I checked the Wildcats’ stats, and it is true. Kansas State holds the second best record for covering spreads at 8 and 2; only behind Stanford who is 9 and 1 ATS.

Why are they still underdogs and getting no respect in the sportsbooks? The answer is simple … who cares. This is easy money for bettors. Kansas State has 5 wins outright this season in games in which they have been underdogs; not only did they cover they won on the money line too. This week they are going into Texas to face the 23rd ranked Longhorns. Currently the line is sitting at 8.5, so Kansas State is +8.5. Lately in college football getting points has been a good thing and I expect the Wildcats to keep rolling and covering.

Some other teams that have flown under the radar with 8 and 2 records ATS are: Vanderbilt, Louisiana Tech, Houston, Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State. Do not be afraid to take underdogs when teams haves proven they can cover.

*Follow me on Twitter @blakelederman to see my weekly prediction(s) #blakesbets.


The Jets Fly to Mile High

November 16, 2011

Another week of the Thursday night NFL game; this week features the New York Jets taking on the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Colorado. These two teams have pretty much had disappointing seasons so far but are not out of the playoff picture yet. Both will be trying to get a much needed win and start some momentum to finish the second half of the season strong.

The New York Jets are coming off of a devastating 37 to 16 home loss to the division-rival New England Patriots. They currently sit at a record of 5-4, 2nd in the AFC East. The Denver Broncos are coming off of a 2-game road winning streak and currently sit at a record of 4-5, 2nd in the AFC West.

Breakdown: Both teams have beat-up running backs that are either questionable or will not play in the game. The Jet’s LaDainian Tomlinson is unlikely to play after suffering a knee injury in the 4th quarter last Sunday against the Patriots. The Broncos lost Knowshon Moreno for the season when he tore his ACL, and Willis McGahee is questionable with a hamstring injury. The reason I mention this is because both offenses rely a lot on the running game, the Broncos especially. Last Sunday against the Cheifs, Tim Tebow only attempted 8 passes, completing 2 of them. The Jets defense will have to prove early that they can stop the option-style offense run by Denver, and force Tebow to pass a little more. The Jets offense needs to get out of the slump they have been in and stay focused for the entire game instead of just a few drives.

Possible Bets for the game: The line for the game opened up with the Jets being 4 point favorites (-4) with an over/under of 42. The spreads have since moved to Jets -6.5 with an over under of 40.5. There are also some prop bets that the sportsbooks are offering for this game:

  • Tebow’s Total Completions o/u 11
  • Tebow’s Total Passing Yards o/u 133.5
  • Tebow’s Total TD Passes o/u 1.5
  • Tebow Throws an Interception Yes/No
  • Tebow Rushes for a TD Yes/No

Prediction: Take the Jets -6.5; over 40.5; under 11 completions; over 133.5 passing yds; under 1.5 TD passes; yes interception; no rushing TD. Jets win 31 to 10.

*Follow me on Twitter @blakelederman to see my weekly prediction(s) #blakesbets.